The weeks that followed the end of the Democratic Convention have been marked by a drop in poll numbers for Donald Trump, not to mention a towering, near-monolithic avalanche of media abuse directed at the candidate.
Seeded among the venom has been the repeated claim that Trump’s numbers have dropped to such unprecedented lows that his loss in November is a mathematical certainty set in stone. All Republicans can do, advise this chorus of tattered remnants of #NeverTrump and non-Republican pundits, is dump The Donald like the radioactive hot potato that he is.
One has to wonder if they really believe this, since the dominant tone among such pundits is not relief that Trump is on his way out. If anything, it’s resulted in even more over-the-top absurdity in the attacks, such as the fact-checking done by Politico to prove to the public that Obama’s name is indeed not on a DBA somewhere as Official Founder of ISIS.
While the accusations vary, though, the message is consistent. Throw in the towel, Donald. It’s Game Over.
But is it? Are the poll numbers really that bad?
Prior to the Republican National Convention, Donald Trump was running about five points behind Hillary Clinton in the General Election, according to Real Clear Politics, which averages several polls to get the general picture.
The RNC put Trump briefly in the lead with a post-Convention bounce. The DNC put Clinton back in the lead with a post-Convention bounce.
Added to that DNC bounce was the gargantuan rage and furor exploding over Khizr Khan, the presentation of Trump’s NRA speech by the media as a call for assassination, and the ISIS Founder uproar, not to say a variety of lesser excruciations — the perennial, Philip Glass-like repetitions of “unfit,” “mentally unstable,” “plunging in the polls,” and, of course, “racist,” endlessly pouring down on Trump’s coiffure like boiling oil over medieval parapets.
Yet what has been the result? As of August 14, 2016, the Real Clear Politics numbers put Trump behind by 6.8 points. In short, only 1.8 points higher than before four full days of Trump-bashing at the RNC plus weeks of the Perfect Media Storm that followed.
And those aren’t the very latest General Election numbers on the RCP site. What do those numbers say?
August 12, LA Times: Clinton +1.
August 11, Reuters: Clinton +6,
August 10, Bloomberg: Clinton +6.
Since Wednesday, then, the average is: Clinton ahead by 4.3 points. One point if you only look at the very latest poll.
It would seem that at the moment Trump is doing a little better vis-a-vis Clinton than he was doing before his Convention. He’s still behind, true. But given the traditional wriggle room of 3 percentage points plus or minus, the candidates appear to be just where they were before — running about neck and neck.
So why does the New York Times Upshot page proclaim “Hillary Clinton Has An 87% Chance Of Winning The Presidency”?
Self-indulgent wishful thinking?
Well… yes.
Clearly, based on the polls number alone, Trump should still be viewed as a viable candidate. But are the numbers the only reason? Consider:
Historical Precedent
Jimmy Carter came out of his Convention with a 30 point lead over Ronald Reagan. Reagan won handily. The current Trump-Clinton spread pales by comparison.
“Hidden” Trump Supporters
Pollsters have long noted that Trump supporters are willing to say that they support Trump if they can say it anonymously. The major polls cited by papers are either not anonymous or far from securely anonymous, and so the vote for Trump may well be higher than it appears. How much higher? We don’t know. Possibly a lot. It’s even possible Trump is actually in the lead.
Declining Poll Reliability
The classic example is Brexit, where every professional poll indicated a Brexit loss, and the actual vote resulted in a decisive Brexit victory. How could they all have gotten it so wrong? One may speculate, but the analogy to Trump is plain: when no less a (Democratic!) pollster than Pat Caddell rakes Reuters over the coals for “cooking” the “dishonest” numbers, one may reasonably question poll accuracy.
Of course it might not matter if Clinton were 87 points ahead. But, despite the efforts of the Times to make it appear so, she isn’t. She’s either one point or six points or more likely somewhere in between at the moment.
And it doesn’t take a lot to turn that around.
Voter Turnout
People who are asked over the phone if they’ll vote for a candidate don’t always go to the polls. What is the turnout record, then, those who have gone out to vote for or support Clinton and Trump?
Answer: Clinton got fewer votes in the primaries than she did when running against Obama in 2008, and her rallies attract hundreds. Trump rallies are overflowing, attracting tens of thousands, and Trump garnered more votes in the primaries than any Republican candidate in history.
If a good many pro-Trump supporters turn out, while a good many Clinton supporters stay home, could that turn things around? It could. And, paradoxically, it becomes all the more likely the more the press assures us of Trump’s absolute unelectability. If a Clinton victory is a certainty, why bother to go to the polls?
(Yes, Trump voters might feel that way and sit out the election too. But then Trump voters have appeared in force at recent rallies despite the recent thunderstorm of predictions of doom and supposed poll declines. Past performance predicts future performance.)
Breaking Scandals
I assume no scandal will affect Trump’s numbers for the simple reason that Trump as such is a walking, talking 24/7 scandal. I do not say this to mock the man, but rather to point to the reactions he inspires.
If Trump turns down a Coke, the next day’s Washington Post headline will play it as Trump’s schizophrenic dog-whistling bigotry against Hispanic cocaine smugglers. If Trump gives an interview and simply sits there quietly while uncharacteristically thinking a bit before answering, the global media would erupt for a week’s time with doctors diagnosing his raging Alzheimers, as retired Democratic generals featured on CNN draw apocalyptic scenarios over the trembling dotard fingers of his small hand on The Nuclear Button.
These weekly performances have become as stylized as classical Kabuki. Trump says x, and the mainstream media, experts, pundits, celebrities scream and weep in lockstep chorus for a week’s time. Then Trump says y, and on it goes again. Strangely, this has made him almost scandal-proof. What could be possibly do or say now that would make the media more frantic than they already are? There’s no next level to take it to. The only way the press and news channels can amp it up further is to hit notes only dogs can hear.
Hillary — though amazingly adept at getting the media to ignore, overlook, or even defend her staggering drawbacks as a candidate — is not quite so immune to scandal. They don’t bring her down, but they do seem to dog her interminably. And several major ones are coming together now, none of them small, and none of them distant.
Leaks
First is Wikileaks, but not only Wikileaks. True, their release of materials related to the DNC blew Debbie Wassermann Schultz clear out of the water, and launched an ongoing and disorganizing bloodbath — perhaps literally, in the case of Seth Rich — in the form of staff purges.
More is promised to come regarding the Clinton Foundation, and more is already surfacing elsewhere. Guccifer 2.0 has dropped additional material. Her deleted emails are said to be floating around the NSA. All will take their toll, but Julian Assange in particular has said that his coming material will beyond a doubt result in Hillary’s indictment, and rumor has it he’s merely waiting for the right moment to drop it — an hour before the first debate, say, before the spin doctors can bury it or explain it away.
Most Americans already believe Hillary is a criminal and should be indicted by the FBI — itself hardly an indicator of strong pro-Hillary voter turnout. She will look like even more of a crook shortly, and then even more of a crook than that. Is there really no tipping point where the electorate may feel that Trump’s incompetence pales before Clinton’s supremely competent criminality?
The FBI Strikes Back
Then there’s the FBI. James Comey may have folded cravenly, and Loretta Lynch may dine with Bill the day before investigations of the Mrs. are dismissed, but non-Washington-based FBI offices are so unhappy with Comey and the DOJ that they are going ahead with investigations into the Clinton Foundation regardless. New York attorney Preet Bhasara in particular has a reputation for bulldog tenacity and incorruptibility and appears to be determined to unearth all he can about corruption at the Clinton Foundation. It is an archeological site of Tutenkhamenesque scope and splendor. Such investigations will not strengthen Mrs. Clinton in her contest with Trump.
The Grating Debates
Another looming crisis for Hillary is the approaching debates. Post-debate polls have consistently shown Trump to be the popular winner in such contests. And why not? Trump may loathe the media, but he is comfortable on stage, practiced before the camera, and entertaining. Hillary’s stiffness is legendary.
It is approaching nearly a year since Hillary has had a full-on press conference, the one quirky exception being a talk with minority journalists only where she confessed to “short-circuiting.” (Rumor has it that her doctors are afraid camera flashes may set off petit mal seizures.)
Hillary has already frozen before hecklers in rallies. God knows how she’ll react when confronted by Trump. I have little doubt the moderators will do all they can to treat her gently if not actively defend her from Trump. But Trump himself will not be gentle in the least.
Clinton may surprise us, but I doubt it. Those petit mal rumors aren’t the only ones. There are videos of her having apparent seizures, needing help up a flight of steps, gaping catatonically when confronted. Medical doctors have diagnosed the videos and the behaviors as advancing Parkinson’s or after-moments of stroke. Something certainly appears to be up. In a debate with Bernie Sanders, she excused herself to go to the bathroom, a Presidential debate First, and she is currently requesting that the Trump debate be done with the debaters seated rather than standing.
Should she lose it on stage in some manner, it might well get her personal sympathy, but I doubt it would get her votes, particularly when given the much-mentioned matter of handling nuclear codes.
But even if Hillary performs without a hitch, she isn’t likely to outdo Trump. The simple fact is, he’s fun to watch. And seeing his natural stand-up improv routine as he makes faces and brags and dithers all but instantly deflates media attempts to portray him as a Hitler.
Merely appearing should shift numbers in Trump’s favor. No small part of the reason Trump hasn’t been moving up of late is simply that he has not been on screen as much. Whenever he has been, in the debates, or during the convention, his numbers have risen.
Will he win the debates? That isn’t the issue. If the past is any indicator, the press will give every debate to Clinton, and the popular polls will give it to Trump.
What matters is not whether Trump does well, but whether he is likely to do worse than he’s doing now. One can’t think how. Now is about as bad as things are likely to get for Trump. The press has done everything humanly possible to come up with a Klan hood tucked under his hairpiece or some Ailes-style dirt on the man. No luck.
The media don’t need actual evidence to tar and feather a person, of course, but you can’t nail someone to the wall for an unthinking racist remark when you’ve been calling him a racist morning to night for the better part of a year.
There really is nothing on the horizon that is likely to worsen the picture for Trump. There is only the same old Kabuki, where Trump makes an offhand remark, and the press goes ballistic. Trump is at baseline: he can only go up.
Hillary, by contrast, has been spared the daily forty media lashes, but from here on in she will have to dance through a minefield. And she is apparently having problems even getting up the stairs.
Tick Tick Tick…
For Trump crisis has become so routine the electorate is deadened. His supporters believe nothing that is said about him, his detractors believe anything that is said about him. Nothing that happens can affect him, and anything that happens will only find him getting more of the same treatment.
Not so Hillary. Her capacity to evade legal censure is majestic, but still she is facing one ticking bomb after another. The sheer stress of multiple scandals sure to break any minute, the possibility of another fall or blood clot, new FBI attentions, a slip-up in her medication or an email break-in into her medical history, possible sabotage from a Bill who is not inclined to be First Lady, or an Obama who would rather his administration gleam brightly against the darkness of Trump’s than merely be the precursor to Hillarycare… Mrs. Clinton is driving over more potential trap doors than one can easily count.
Minority support? Without Obama at the head of the ticket, the black vote in 2010 dipped and in 2014 dropped so low it resulted in a Republican Congress. Expectations that the black vote will be as large for an elderly white woman as it was for a black man is fantasy.
And then there is the factor of luck. One reason Khan’s attack went over so well is that no ISIS attack occurred at that time to distract from it. If an incident similar to Nice had occurred in Philadelphia the day after Khan spoke, the press would have been reluctantly forced to cover the incident — an incident likely only to generate more votes for Trump.
We may safely assume that more such incidents will occur before the November election. How often, how spectacular they are, how much Trump benefits, and how artfully Hillary manages to square them with her calls for increased Muslim immigration, could well influence vote count.
The same holds for urban rioting. As this article goes to press, Milwaukee is burning. Apparently a black police officer shot a black gunman and up the city went. More injured police hospitalized; more media appearances by Black Lives Matter; more votes for Donald Trump.
Merely hoping that no more such things occur between now and November is not a plan, much less formula for victory. But — like more email leaks, more legal investigations, like the coming debates — they are waiting in the wings to happen, and each time they do, Trump gets stronger.
Trumpophobia Fatigue
It is possible that the press will ignore every last such bloody street incident and every dark Clintonian blemish. It’s possible that the media will concentrate solely on splashing every Trump smear imaginable over every second of screen time and every inch of print they can from now till the election.
But there are three months left to go. And my sense is that the electorate is getting far sicker of the relentless assaults on Trump than they could ever get of Trump. In the past few weeks Trump has been accused of being a Soviet agent, hating babies, calling on the NRA to assassinate Hillary, and thinking that Obama and Hillary incorporated ISIS personally. And of being Hitler, and a closet liberal, of course.
How much further in this direction can the Fourth Estate go? What will the next accusation be? That Trump crucified Christ personally? Will it be bestiality? Will we learn that Trump is a reptilian shape-shifter? Will Francis name him Anti-Christ?
At some point not only does it all become just too unbelievable, it gets harder even to pretend to believe it. Outrage is not a common everyday feeling. Trump clearly seems to inspire it, or at least good impressions of it, in the press, but can we really expect them to maintain it at fever pitch for months? If the press does not burn out, the public will. And it is not Hillary Clinton who will profit from that exhaustion.
The Art Of The Comeback
In conclusion? People writing Donald Trump off now are being as foolish as those who wrote him off in 2015. Let us remember that back then every last pundit of note, with the sole exceptions of Ann Coulter and Scott Adams, gave Trump no chance whatever of ever winning anything, and these same pundits predicted ceiling after ceiling and downturn after downturn every step of the way.
All of them were dead wrong. Media estimates of Trump’s chances have been mistaken at every point, and at this point even the pretense of objectivity has been tossed aside. What read from those sources is no longer news, but self-serving rationalizations.
The rumors of Trump’s political demise. like the assertions of his political incompetence, are greatly exaggerated. What we can expect from Trump is not graceless implosion and defeat. What we can expect from the author of The Art Of The Comeback is a comeback of major proportions.
The simple fact is that at this point all Trump needs to do to win is to gain a bit more than three points while Hillary loses a bit more than three points. Given that Hillary is certain to encounter some severe hits in days to come, that small a reversal is far from unlikely.
Donald Trump is nothing if not formidable. And while he may still lose this election, that is not the way to bet, and not my expectation.