{"id":519,"date":"2016-05-19T14:53:12","date_gmt":"2016-05-19T14:53:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/pascaleditions.com\/peterthomassimon\/?p=519"},"modified":"2016-05-19T16:03:49","modified_gmt":"2016-05-19T16:03:49","slug":"elaborating-the-new-normal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/pascaleditions.com\/peterthomassimon\/elaborating-the-new-normal\/","title":{"rendered":"Elaborating The New Normal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"\">Thomas\u00a0Edsall often seems a cut above other <i>Times<\/i> writers because he likes to shore up his case with numbers.\u00a0 The problem is, making a case involves more than finding <i>supporting<\/i> data:\u00a0 it means seeking out<i> all <\/i>the data, including any data that disconfirms your views.\u00a0 Edsall artfully leaves too much of such data out, even as he slips unjustified conclusions in.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Case in point?\u00a0 Edsall&#8217;s recent Times piece, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/05\/18\/opinion\/campaign-stops\/does-democratic-weakness-create-republican-opportunity.html\">Does Democratic Weakness Create Republican Opportunity?<\/a>\u00a0 Edsall\u00a0tells us early on that Gallup says Trump has 70% unfavorables. \u00a0Implication?\u00a0 He\u2019s doomed! \u00a0(How many unfavorables does <em>Hillary<\/em> have?\u00a0 No citation there. \u00a0Not even from Gallup!\u00a0 Strangely, a search for a thorough corresponding study of Clinton negatives on the Gallup site turns up nothing.\u00a0 Apparently only Trump-bashing numbers are worth examining.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"\"><span class=\"\">There are more pollsters than Gallup, of course.\u00a0 Also not cited.\u00a0 A National Review poll tells us Trump has 68% negatives \u2014 and Hillary 58%. \u00a0 AP calls it at 69% to 55%.\u00a0 So there\u2019s only average 12 point difference\u2026 among women.\u00a0 What about the missing gender \u2014 men?\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/2016-gender-gap-436633\">Newsweek<\/a>:\u00a0 \u201c<\/span><span class=\"\">Among Republican-leaning voters, 62 percent of men said they view Trump favorably compared with just 41 percent of women.\u201d Among Dems it\u2019s nearly even, but that 21<\/span> point lead on one side certainly does even the numbers on the other, doesn\u2019t it?\u00a0 (Edsall neglects to cite the latest <a href=\"http:\/\/elections.huffingtonpost.com\/pollster\/donald-trump-favorable-rating\">HuffPo poll<\/a>, where Trump\u2019s unfavorables among women are 57.8% \u2014 <i>lower<\/i> than Hillary\u2019s.)<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">But such filtered data is not Edsall\u2019s argument here.\u00a0 Rather, it is his astounded observation that while Newt Gingrich wrote a set of election guidelines for Republican candidates that recommends \u201cwidespread inclusion of ethnic groups,\u201d\u00a0 Gingrich also supports Donald Trump!\u00a0 Who as we all know (because Edsall tells us so, in the teeth of Trump&#8217;s repeated calls for party and national unity) that Trump wants to <i>exclude<\/i> ethnic groups.\u00a0 What gives?<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Well.\u00a0 The first thing to note is that there is no reason to think Gingrich is serious about his document.\u00a0 I mean, what\u2019s he going to do in a Party puff piece, come out shouting, \u201c<i>White supremacy now!<\/i>\u201d?\u00a0 Gingrich talks the inclusivity talk because it\u2019s the required cant every politician is expected to mouth, and Edsall is cherry-picking that one phrase out of a 26-page booklet because he wants to re-assert the unpalatability of Trump to the inclusion-friendly <em>Times<\/em> readership. \u00a0Fair enough. \u00a0But Edsall knows full well, as does Gingrich, that the Republican voter base is increasingly and overwhelmingly white, and that asking Republicans to reach out to other ethnic groups is like asking Louis Farrakhan to proselytize in Chinatown.\u00a0 That\u2019s simply not where their support is.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">This isn\u2019t vile or immoral <em>per se<\/em>. \u00a0It depends on the demographic, and the ideology through which you view it. \u00a093% of blacks voted for Obama in 2012.\u00a0 Because they like bailing out bankers that foreclosed on over a million black homes? \u00a0No: because they identified with Obama on a racial basis \u2014 which we celebrate as a righteous marker of racial pride and racial solidarity, while we passionately \u201cdemonize,\u201d as Edsall likes to say, white voters who appear to be doing the same.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Well, fine, demonize away, but <i>observe the process<\/i>, because it is <i>predictive<\/i>.\u00a0 If all minorities and minority politicians play the minority card to evident advantage, then as whites become a minority, they can be expected to do so as well.\u00a0 Some \u2014 WASPs, Rust Belt working class whites, the Appalachian poor \u2014 are <i>already <\/i>minorities.\u00a0 Why do we expect them to act differently, <i>vote<\/i> differently, than any other such group?\u00a0 Why do we expect politicians to shun them, or them to shun politicians who address their unique concerns?<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Edsall goes on to cite the 2013 \u201cautopsy\u201d report on the need for Republicans to get more \u201cHispanics, gays, women.\u201d\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 The fact that pundits say they <i>need <\/i>to means they <i>aren\u2019t<\/i> doing it now.\u00a0 And where do they stand now? \u00a0They hold majorities in Congress, governorships, state houses, local contests across the board.\u00a0 Because they\u2019re embracing \u201cHispanics, gays, women\u201d?\u00a0 They\u2019re <i>not<\/i> embracing them.\u00a0 And they\u2019re winning.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Yes, but they\u2019re losing national elections, Edsall suggests. \u00a0Am I missing something, or have Republicans won two out of the last four, and nine out of the last eight?\u00a0\u00a0Edsall notes at the very end of his piece that the latest NBC poll gives Clinton only a 3-point 48%-45% lead over the candidate running in utter defiance of Gingrich&#8217;s ostensible recommendations. (And ignores, typically, the near-even 41-40 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.breitbart.com\/2016-presidential-race\/2016\/05\/11\/national-poll-donald-trump-surges-neck-neck-hillary-clinton\/\">Reuters<\/a> poll, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.breitbart.com\/2016-presidential-race\/2016\/05\/02\/poll-trump-edges-clinton-voters-pushed\/\">Rasmussen<\/a> polls giving Trump the lead 41-39, and the latest Fox poll that has the Trump lead widening 45-42).<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">This is losing? \u00a0The Republican strategy is succeeding.\u00a0 Why shouldn\u2019t it?\u00a0 61% of the public is white.\u00a0 74% of the voters last time around were white.\u00a0 Why try to take non-white voters away from Democrats, who have them all but hog-tied, when all you need to do instead is energize the white vote just enough to get them to the polls? \u00a0And, I might add, freeze the practice of importing Democratic votes by freezing immigration. A cynical policy? \u00a0Indeed it is &#8212; on both sides. \u00a0Pro-immigration have boosted Democratic votes massively. \u00a0Are we surprised that Republicans seeking to reduce Democratic votes will argue for opposing policies?<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Edsall comes to bury The Donald, not to praise him and his electoral insight on this score.\u00a0 So he lets the statistical mask drop and moralizes instead, calls these developments \u201cbackward-looking\u201d and \u201cracial reaction\u2026\u201d \u00a0 Frankly, he would be better off simply calling it \u201cdemocracy,\u201d a curious political arrangement whereby the majority elects a leadership that addresses majority concerns. \u00a0Looking at it from that end would have allowed him to\u00a0direct his data-gathering inclinations profitably to what seems to me an obviously emerging political trend.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">What appears to be going on politically is a historic realignment of racial party identification analogous to the overwhelming shift of black voters from Republican to Democrat around the time of the Civil Rights Act.\u00a0 Trump\u2019s walloping sweep of the Northeast in the primaries suggest that a similar realignment of whites is occurring, this time in the opposite direction, to the benefit of the Republicans.\u00a0 Even the Democrats as well seem to be segregating into a wing of overwhelmingly white voters (the Sanders crowd) and the black-brown-LBGTQETC-feminist coalition of fringes represented by Hillary.\u00a0 The many harmonies between Trump and Sanders suggests that some future meta-Trump (or even Trump himself, if he turns out as liberal as <i>National Review<\/i> fears) might well meld the white Democrats into the Republicans, leaving the Democrats as we know them in the long-term cold \u2014 a Black Lives Matter party as riven with factionalism as the Republican party is united in placid homogeneity.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">Ross Douthat <a href=\"http:\/\/douthat.blogs.nytimes.com\/2016\/05\/17\/regarding-the-trumpenproletariat\/\">elsewhere<\/a> rather supports this insight, suggesting (rightly) that that Trump voters are not the gap-toothed trailer trash of liberal wet dreams but actually <i>upper<\/i> middle class!\u00a0 (Well, upper-lower.\u00a0 He wouldn\u2019t want to give <i>Times<\/i> readers the impression that such readers and what he condescendingly calls the Trumpenproletariat are actually social or intellectual<i> <\/i>equals.)\u00a0 Ross is\u00a0wrong, but subtly wrong, as usual:\u00a0 they\u2019re not upper-lower <i>instead<\/i>:\u00a0 they\u2019re upper-lower <i>also<\/i>. \u00a0Indeed, in Trump\u2019s last sweeps, he led in <i>every<\/i> class and economic category. And that is significant because, while we would like to assume that Republican, and Trump Republicans in particular, are a lower species of vermin, they are for the most part not all that different from other Americans of whatever party. \u00a0Trump&#8217;s is a resonance sweeping across the board.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">But &#8212; and this is a line that even Trump has failed to cross &#8212; addressing these developments explicitly remains conversationally fatal. \u00a0Clearly and increasingly, demography decides elections. \u00a0Seekers after power, candidates like Trump, like Clinton, like former Speaker Gingrich, not only appeal to specific demographics, but now aim to actively shape them.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">But whereas power-seekers like Mrs. Clinton can vocally celebrate the rise of some demographics as the expense of others, those on the opposing side must use an Aesopian language. \u00a0For all the talk of white nationalist support for Trump, the fact is that there is not one single white nationalist in any elective office in America, and &#8220;Make America White Again&#8221; is neither Trump&#8217;s tagline nor a viable one. \u00a0Hence the spectacle of Newt Gingrich making policy recommendations that contradict\u00a0his actual support. \u00a0It is an ideological form of white flight &#8212; saying one thing, doing another.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">But it is a mistake to suggest, as Edsall invariably does, that it is backwards and racist. \u00a0It is simply a matter of Republican politicians learning to play a game that Democrats have developed to the level of an art.<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">The problem is, it is an art of power, not an art of community. \u00a0Fundamental shifts of population are being made to gain votes or provide cheap labor for corporate donors, but the question of whether the social fabric is torn in the process of being patched and re-patched is not addressed. \u00a0Nor<em> can<\/em> it be addressed, except circuitously, while political correctness, the restriction of morality to left-wing discourse alone, is the norm. The multicultural left calls this &#8220;dog-whistling,&#8221; a way of appealing to base sentiments that dare not be expressed, but to look beyond that is to see a manner of<em> reasoning and analysis<\/em> that dares not be expressed. \u00a0Those grow in darkness but eventually flower in policy and ideology. \u00a0What is the entire Trumpian spectacle if not the first such shoots?<\/p>\n<p class=\"\">From a larger sociological perspective, what we may be going through is a crisis point where the centrifugal forces pulling America into subsidiary racial tribes may either be reaching the historical moment that the overarching whole begins to seriously fall apart, or the moment where countervailing forces of integration begin to seriously re-assert themselves, and the loosely monocultural again subsumes the loosely multicultural. This is not as new a story as it seems &#8212; whites were an American minority for centuries, with a black slave underclass, an encircling Native American indigenous population, and a powerful Mexican neighbor waiting for them as they pushed West. \u00a0That they eventually gelled into a majority culture was neither a short process nor a delicate one. \u00a0Nor are all the drivers behind such emergences clear. \u00a0But rough monocultures do emerge, and their characters matter. \u00a0Detroit is violent, but it is not Chechnya. \u00a0Yet. \u00a0It may never be, if underlying trends are arrested and reversed <em>suavely<\/em>, as opposed to collapsing in a hard crash. \u00a0In this sense, Gingrich&#8217;s contradictions may less hypocrisy or confusion than a much-needed buffer. \u00a0Just as, in contrast to as well as in congruence with the multiple nationalist parties on the rise in Europe, Trump may be a prevision of the new normal. \u00a0And Edsall, an example not so much of moralistic sputtering but of a long-term trend sputtering out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thomas\u00a0Edsall often seems a cut above other Times writers because he likes to shore up his case with numbers.\u00a0 The problem is, making a case involves more than finding supporting data:\u00a0 it means seeking out all the data, including any data that disconfirms your views.\u00a0 Edsall artfully leaves too much of such data out, even [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":521,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-culture","category-ideology","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - 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